Kalshi: The Financial Markets’ Answer to ‘What Are You Gonna Do, Arrest Me?’
And the event-based prediction market offers its first esports event
In this week’s Esprouts:
Kalshi: The Financial Markets’ Answer to ‘What Are You Gonna Do, Arrest Me?’
From Wall Street to Summoner’s Rift: Kalshi’s Esports Bet
GG: Oddin partners with Starladder
Novibet to utilise SIS’ H2H Global Gaming League content
An +More Media publication.
For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.
Kalshi: The Financial Markets’ Answer to ‘What Are You Gonna Do, Arrest Me?’
Event-based prediction market Kalshi is set to begin offering markets on single-match outcomes.
This comes after the company informed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it will be self-certifying contracts on “events.” Dustin Gouker’s excellent Event Horizon first reported this.
Kalshi's example, which it considers to be an event, is “the National Basketball Association meeting between the New York Knickerbockers and the Houston Rockets scheduled to be played on February 3, 2025.”
Dustin has been busy on LinkedIn covering Kalshi’s moves since the entity was all the rage during the U.S. Presidential Election after winning a legal battle against its regulator-turned-nemesis, the CFTC.
Perhaps it was genius marketing to hit Dustin with two sponsored posts on the morning of the Super Bowl, claiming to be “the first nationwide legal sports betting platform.”
The old adage goes, “Give them an inch, and they’ll take a mile.” Kalshi seems almost hell-bent on forcing regulatory change (perhaps even at the federal level) to address its activity. Until it happens, though, there’s no doubt they’ll keep chancing their arm.
The first advert was particularly interesting. The caption reads: “You can now legally bet on sports in Texas with Kalshi.”
Although Governor Greg Abbott gave timid support to the Texas sports betting legalization push when speaking on a podcast with the Houston Chronicle, gambling laws in the Lone Star State are still amongst the strictest.
(Disclaimer: I have no legal background, just a keen interest in U.S. regulatory happenings)
Section 47.03 of Chapter 47 of Title 10 (Offenses against public health, safety, and morals) in the Texas Penal Code reads as follows:
“Sec. 47.03. GAMBLING PROMOTION. (a) A person commits an offense if he intentionally or knowingly does any of the following acts:
operates or participates in the earnings of a gambling place;
engages in bookmaking;
for gain, becomes a custodian of anything of value bet or offered to be bet;
sells chances on the partial or final result of or on the margin of victory in any game or contest or on the performance of any participant in any game or contest or on the result of any political nomination, appointment, or election or on the degree of success of any nominee, appointee, or candidate; or
for gain, sets up or promotes any lottery or sells or offers to sell or knowingly possesses for transfer, or transfers any card, stub, ticket, check, or other device designed to serve as evidence of participation in any lottery.
(b) An offense under this section is a Class A misdemeanor.”
Kalshi seems to be repeatedly poking the bear and towing the thinnest of lines - but how long will it be until the bear wakes up?
Kalshi is offering a regulated product under the CFTC's oversight but, as a result, bypasses state-by-state gambling regulation.
Pushing the boundaries of regulation is one thing. Still, one would assume the behemoths of online gambling won’t sit quietly (see pressure on prop-style DFS markets) should Kalshi continue its aggressive sports events expansion.
If single-event prediction markets emerge, it surely won’t be long before heads start to roll.
From Wall Street to Summoner’s Rift: Kalshi’s Esports Bet
Monsieur Gooker also spotted an esports market on Kalshi’s ever-growing offering last week.
The event, “Who will win League Worlds?” conforms to Kalshi’s usual prediction market and is the only esports-specific market available.
Other video game-related markets include the release date of Grand Theft Auto 6, the Game Awards Game of the Year, whether the PS6 is announced this year, and the Metacritic score for Vampire: The Masquerade—Bloodlines 2.
At the time of writing, the market's traded volume is only $2,370. However, the market for GTA VI’s release date is nearing the $100,000 mark.
The low volume for League of Legends’ 2025 World Championship is unsurprising:
The dates are yet to be announced, but the competition will likely conclude in November;
There are the Spring and Summer splits left of regular regional competition before prospective bettors can better understand which teams have qualified for Worlds.
It would be interesting to see the volume traded on a Kalshi market for a large Counter-Strike tournament.
Counter-Strike typically attracts the most significant volume of bets amongst a Western audience.
See previous Esprouts (Buzzword Battle Royale: When Esports Meets Web3 in a Crypto-Powered Loot Box) for commentary around company Community Gaming and its attempt to create ‘unique cultural prediction markets’ that are already proving not so unique.
Patch Notes
GG: Oddin partners with Starladder
B2B esports supplier Oddin.gg has announced a long-term partnership with recently acquired tournament organizer StarLadder.
The deal will see the two organizations deliver a series of ‘high-profile’ Counter-Strike 2 tournaments. The release suggests that the return of StarSeries events combined with Oddin’s “innovative betting markets and thrilling matchups” looks to “raise the bar for esports entertainment.”
Late last year, the supplier announced it had secured a license to operate in Arizona. The Grand Canyon State became Oddin’s sixth North American license, joining New Jersey, Colorado, West Virginia, Ohio, and Ontario.
Read the full release here.
Novibet to utilise SIS’ H2H Global Gaming League content
SIS and Novibet have partnered to bring H2H Global Gaming League eSoccer and eBasketball content to Novibet’s customers.
Novibet’s Head of Sportsbook Product, Giannis Paraschos, commented: “Partnering with SIS enables us to enhance our sportsbook offering with a dynamic and high-performing esports product suite. SIS’ esports content perfectly aligns with our mission to deliver tailored, high-quality betting experiences.”
SIS’ ESIC Gold Standard accredited league offers over 200,000 annual eSoccer and eBasketball games to wager on, with various markets available for each.
Read the full release here.